Herramientas de simulación para comprender y evaluar los sistemas de pastoreo mediterráneos

  1. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama
  2. Javier Ibáñez Puerta
Revista:
Revista española de estudios agrosociales y pesqueros

ISSN: 1575-1198

Año de publicación: 2019

Número: 254

Páginas: 15-47

Tipo: Artículo

Otras publicaciones en: Revista española de estudios agrosociales y pesqueros

Referencias bibliográficas

  • AIDOUD, A. (2002). Vegetation changes and land use changes in Algerian steppe rangelands. In A. Pastor-López y E. Seva-Román (Eds.), Restauración de la cubierta vegetal en ecosistemas mediterráneos (pp. 53-80). Alicante: Instituto de Cultura Juan-Gil Albert.
  • ALCALÁ, F. J., MARTÍN-MARTÍN, M., GUERRERA, F., MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., y ROBLES-MARÍN, P. (2018). A feasible methodology for groundwater resource modelling for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands : Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in the northern Sahara. Science of the Total Environment, 630, p. 1246-1257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.294
  • ARACIL, J. (1979). Introducción a la Dinámica de Sistemas. Madrid: Alianza Editorial.
  • ASNER, G. P., ELMORE, A. J., OLANDER, L. P., MARTIN, R. E., y HARRIS, A. T. (2004). Grazing systems, ecosystem responses, and Global Change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 29(1), p. 261-299. https://doi.org/ 10.1146/annurev.energy.29.062403.102142
  • ATANASOVA, N., D V ZEROSKI, S., KOMPARE, B., TODOROVSKI, L., y Gal, G. (2011). Automated discovery of a model for dinoflagellate dynamics. Environmental Modelling y Software, 26(5), p. 658-668. https://doi.org/https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.11.003
  • AYOUB, A. T. (1998). Extent, severity and causative factors of land degradation in the Sudan. Journal of Arid Environments, 38(3), p. 397-409. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1006/jare.1997.0346
  • BEDUNAH, D. J., y ANGERER, J. P. (2012). Rangeland degradation, poverty, and conflict: How Can Rangeland Scientists Contribute to Effective Responses and Solutions? Rangeland Ecology y Management, 65(6), p. 606-612. https://doi.org/10.2111/REM-D-11-00155.1
  • BERES, D. L., y HAWKINS, D. M. (2001). Plackett-Burman technique for sensitivity analysis of many-parametered models. Ecological Modelling, 141(1), 171-183. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00271-X
  • CARIBONI, J., GATELLI, D., LISKA, R., y SALTELLI, A. (2007). The role of sensitivity analysis in Ecological Modelling. Ecological Modelling (Vol. 203). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.10.045
  • CHERLET, M., HUTCHINSON, C., REYNOLDS, J., HILL, J., SOMMER, S., y von MALTITZ, G. (Eds.). (2018). World Atlas of Desertification. Luxembourg: Publication Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/9205
  • COSTANZA, R. (1996). Ecological Economics: Reintegrating the Study of Humans and Nature. Ecological Applications, 6 (4), 978-990. https://doi.org/10.2307/2269581
  • D’ODORICO, P., BHATTACHAN, A., DAVIS, K., RAVI, S., y RUNYAN, C. (2013). Global desertification: Drivers and feedbacks. Advances in Water Resources, 51, p. 326-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.01.013
  • DAVIS, D. K. (2016). The arid lands. History, power, knowledge. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
  • DE VISSER, C. L. M., SCHREUDER, R., y STODDARD, F. (2014). The EU’s dependency on soya bean import for the animal feed industry and potential for EU produced alternatives. OCL, 21(4).
  • DIXON, J. A., JAMES, D. E., y SHERMAN, P. B. (2009). Risk and uncertainty in Dryland development and management. In Economics of Dryland Management (p. 324).
  • EDELSTEIN-KESHET, L. (1988). Mathematical models in biology. New York: The Random House.
  • ELLIS, J. E., y SWIFT, D. M. (1976). Stability of African pastoral ecosystems : Alternate paradigms and implications for development. Journal of Range Management, 41(6), p. 450-459.
  • ENGLER, J.-O., ABSON, D. J., FELLER, R., HANSPACH, J., y VON WEHRDEN, H. (2018). A social-ecological typology of rangelands based on rainfall variability and farming type. Journal of Arid Environments, 148, p. 65-73. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2017.09.009
  • EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY (EEA). (2007). Corine Land Cover 2000 (CLC2000) Seamless Vector Database. Retrieved from http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/ corine-land-cover-2000-clc2000-seamless-vector-database-5
  • FERRER, C., SAN MIGUEL, A., y OLEA, L. (2001). Nomenclator básico de pastos en España. Pastos XXIX, 2 (1), p. 7-44. https://doi.org/10.1017/ CBO9781107415324.004
  • FORRESTER, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge: The MIT Press. FRANK, P. M. (1978). Introduction to system sensitivity theory. New York: Academic Press.
  • FRASER, E. D. G., DOUGILL, A. J., HUBACEK, K., QUINN, C. H., SENDZIMIR, J., y TERMANSEN, M. (2011). Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems. Ecology and Society, 1
  • FREIER, K., FINCKH, M., SCHNEIDER, U., FREIER, K. P., FINCKH, M., y SCHNEIDER, U. A. (2014). Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco. Land, 3 (3), p. 917-940. https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030917
  • GAN, Y., DUAN, Q., GONG, W., TONG, C., SUN, Y., CHU, W., y DI, Z. (2014). A comprehensive evaluation of various sensitivity analysis methods: A case study with a hydrological model. Environmental Modelling y Software, 51, p. 269-285. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2013.09.031
  • GEA-IZQUIERDO, G., CAÑELLAS, I., y MONTERO, G. (2006). Acorn production in Spanish holm oak woodlands. Investigaciones Agrarias. Forest Systems, 13, p. 339-354. https://doi.org/10.5424/srf/2006153-00976
  • GLEN, G., e ISAACS, K. (2012). Estimating Sobol sensitivity indices using correlations. Environmental Modelling y Software, 37, p. 157-166. https:// doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.03.014
  • GOTELLI, N. J. (1998). A primer in Ecology (2nd ed.). Massachussets: Sinaver Associates Inc. Publishers.
  • HANSON, C. L., WIGHT, J. R., SLAUGHTER, C. W., PIERSON, F. B., y SPAETH, K. (1997). Simulation models and management of rangeland ecosystems : past , present , and future. Rangelands, 21(4), 32-38.
  • HERRICK, J. E., BROWN, J. R., BESTELMEYER, B. T., ANDREWS, S. S., BALDI, G. DAVIES, J., y TWOMLOW, S. (2012). Revolutionary land use change in the 21st century: Is (Rangeland) science relevant? Rangeland Ecology and Management, 65(6), p. 590-598. https://doi.org/10.2111/REM-D-11-00186.1
  • HIRCHE, A., SALAMANI, M., ABDELLAOUI, A., BENHOUHOU, S., y VALDERRAMA, J. M. (2011). Landscape changes of desertification in arid areas: The case of south-west Algeria. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 179(1-4), p. 403-420. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-010-1744-5
  • HOLLING, C. S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst (Vol. 4).
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., LAVADO CONTADOR, J. F., y PULIDO FERNÁNDEZ, M. MARTÍNEZVALDERRAMA, J. (2019). Social and environmental prospects for commercial rangelands: A modelling assessment. Science of the Total Environment, In press.
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., y MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J. (2018). Global effectiveness of group decision-making strategies in coping with forage and price variabilities in commercial rangelands: A modelling assessment. Journal of Environmental Management, 217, p. 531-541. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.127
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., LAVADO CONTADOR, J. F., SCHNABEL, S., y MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J. (2016). Evaluating the influence of physical, economic and managerial factors on sheet erosion in rangelands of SW Spain by performing a sensitivity analysis on an integrated dynamic model. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.128
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., MARTÍNEZ VICENTE, S., MARTÍNEZ RUIZ, A., y ROJO SERRANO, L. (2015). Procedimientos de alerta temprana y estimación de riesgos de desertificación mediante modelos de Dinámica de Sistemas. Madrid: Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente.
  • IBAÑEZ, J., MARTINEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., PAPANASTASIS, V., EVANGELOU, C., y PUIGDEFABREGAS, J. (2014a). A multidisciplinary model for assessing degradation in Mediterranean rangelands. Land Degradation y Development, 25(5), p. 468-482. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2165
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., LAVADO CONTADOR, J. F., SCHNABEL, S., PULIDO FERNÁNDEZ, M., y MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J. (2014b). A model-based integrated assessment of land degradation by water erosion in a valuable Spanish rangeland. Environmental Modelling y Software, 55, p. 201-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.envsoft.2014.01.026
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., y PUIGDEFÁBREGAS, J. (2008). Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis. Ecological Modelling, 213(2), 180-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.017
  • IBÁÑEZ, J., MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., y SCHNABEL, S. (2007). Desertification due to overgrazing in a dynamic commercial livestock-grass-soil system. Ecological Modelling, 205(3-4), p. 277-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel. 2007.02.024
  • KELLY, R. A., JAKEMAN, A. J., BARRETEAU, O., BORSUK, M. E., ELSAWAH, S., HAMILTON, S. H., y VOINOV, A. A. (2013). Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environmental Modelling and Software, 47, p. 159-181. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.05.005
  • LE HOUÉROU, H. N. (1981). Impact of man and his animals on Mediterranean vegetation. In F. Castri, D. Goodall, y R. Specht (Eds.), Mediterranean-type shrublands, Ecosystems of the World 11 (pp. 479-521). New York, NY: Elsevier Science Publishers Co.
  • LUND, G. (2007). Accounting for the World’s Rangelands. BioOne, 29(1),p. 3-10.
  • MAESTRE, F. T., SALGUERO-GÓMEZ, R., y QUERO, J. L. (2012). It is getting hotter in here: Determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367(1606), p. 3062-3075. https://doi.org/10.1098/ rstb.2011.0323
  • MAGRAMA. (2008). Programa de Acción Nacional contra la Desertificación. Madrid. Madrid.
  • MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., IBÁÑEZ, J., ALCALÁ, F., SANJUÁN, M. E., RUIZ, A., y DEL BARRIO, G. (2019). Estimating rangelands vulnerability to droughts under the threat of an increasing climate uncertainty. Agricultural Systems, In press.
  • MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., IBÁÑEZ, J., DEL BARRIO, G., ALCALÁ, F. J., SANJUÁN, M. E., RUIZ, A., y PUIGDEFÁBREGAS, J. (2018). Doomed to collapse: Why Algerian steppe rangelands are overgrazed and some lessons to help land-use transitions. Science of the Total Environment, 613-614, 1489-1497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.058
  • MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., IBÁÑEZ, J., DEL BARRIO, G., SANJUÁN, M. E., ALCALÁ, F. J., MARTÍNEZ-VICENTE, S., y PUIGDEFÁBREGAS, J. (2017). Present and future of desertification in Spain: Implementation of a surveillance system to prevent land degradation. Science of The Total Environment, 563, p. 169-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.065
  • MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., IBAÑEZ, J., ALCALÁ, F. J., DOMINGUEZ, A., YASSIN, M., y PUIGDEFÁBREGAS, J. (2011). The use of a hydrological-economic model to assess sustainability in groundwater-dependent agriculture in drylands. Journal of Hydrology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.003
  • MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J. (2006). Análisis de la desertificación por sobrepastoreo mediante un modelo de simulación dinámico. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid.
  • MARTÍNEZ-VALDERRAMA, J., e IBAÑEZ, J. (2004). Foundations for a dynamic model to analyze stability in commercial grazing systems. In S. Schnabel y A. Ferreira (Eds.), Sustainability of Agrosilvopastoral Systems –Dehesas, Montados– (pp. 173-182). Advances in Geoecology.
  • MARTÍNEZ-VICENTE, S., y REQUENA, A. (1986). Dinámica de Sistemas. 1. Simulación por ordenador. Madrid, Spain.: Alianza Editorial.
  • MAY, R. M. (1977). Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states. Nature, 269(5628), 4p. 71-477.
  • MENKE, J., y BRADFORD, G. E. (1992). Rangelands. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 42, p. 217-230.
  • MILLENIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT (MEA). (2005). Ecosystems and human well-being: Desertification synthesis. Washington, DC.: World Resources Institute.
  • NOY-MEIR, I. (1975). Stability of grazing systems: an application of predatorprey graphs. Journal of Ecology, 63(2), p. 459-481. https://doi.org/10.2307/ 2258730
  • NOY-MEIR, I. (1978). Grazing and production in seasonal pastures: analysis of a simple model. Journal of Applied Ecology, 15(3), p. 809-835. https://doi.org/10.2307/2402778
  • PAPANASTASIS, V., y MANSAT, P. (1996). Grasslands and related forage resources in Mediterranean areas. Grassland Science in Europe (Vol. 1).
  • PEREVOLOTSKY, A., y SELIGMAN, N. G. (1998). Role of grazing in Mediterranean rangeland ecosystems Inversion of a paradigm. Bioscience, 48(12), p. 10071017.
  • PERRY, G. L. W., y MILLINGTON, J. D. A. (2008). Spatial modelling of succession-disturbance dynamics in forest ecosystems: Concepts and examples. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 9(3-4), 191-210.
  • PUIGDEFÁBREGAS, J. (1995). Erosión y desertificación en España. Campo, 132, p. 63-83.
  • REYNOLDS, J. F., SMITH, D. M. S., LREYNOLDS, J.F., SMITH, D.M.S., LAMBIN, E.F., TURNER II, B.L., MORTIMORE, M., BATTERBURY, S.P.J., DOWNING, T.E., DOWLATABADI, H., FERNANDEZ, R.J., HERRICK, J.E., HUBER-SANNWALD, E., JIANG, H., LEEMANS, R., LYNAM, T., MAESTRE, F.T., AYARZA, M., WALKER, B., E. F., TURNER II, B. L., MORTIMORE, M., BATTERBURY, S. P. J., y WALKER, B. (2007). Global desertification: Building a science for dryland development. Science, 316(5826), p. 847-851. https://doi.org/ 10.1126/science.1131634
  • ROSENZWEIG, M. L., y MACARTHUR, R. H. (1963). Graphical representation and stability conditions of predator-prey interactions. The American Naturalist, 97(895), p. 209-223.
  • ROWNTREE, K., DUMA, M., KAKEMBO, V., y THORNES, J. (2004). Debunking the myth of overgrazing and soil erosion. Land Degradation y Development, 15(3), p. 203-214. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.609
  • SALTELLI, A., RATTO, M., ANDRES, T., CAMPOLONGO, F., CARIBONI, J., GATELLI, D., y SAISANA, M. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The primer. Chinchester: John Wiley y Sons.
  • SCHNABEL, S. (1997). Soil erosion and runoff production in a small watershed under silvo-pastoral landuse (Dehesas) in Extremadura, Spain. Logroño, Spain: Geoforma Ediciones.
  • SCHWARTZ, H. J. (2005). Ecological and economic consequences of reduced mobility in pastoral Livestock. In E. Fratkin y E. A. Roth (Eds.), Studies in Human Ecology and Adaptation (Vol. 1, pp. 69-86). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-48595-8
  • SLIMANI, H., AIDOUD, A., y ROZÉ, F. (2010). 30 Years of protection and monitoring of a steppic rangeland undergoing desertification. Journal of Arid Environments, 74(6), p. 685-691.
  • SOBOL, I. M. (2001). Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 55(1-3), p. 271-280. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S0378-4754(00)00270-6
  • STAFFORD SMITH, D. M., MCKEON, G. M., WATSON, I. W., HENRY, B. K., STONE, G. S., HALL, W. B., y HOWDEN, S. M. (2007). Learning from episodes of degradation and recovery in variable Australian rangelands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(52), p. 20690-20695. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0704837104
  • STERMAN, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Mc Graw Hill.
  • SULLIVAN, S., y ROHDE, R. (2002). On non-equilibrium in arid and semi-arid grazing systems. Journal of Biogeography, 29(12), p. 1595-1618. https:// doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00799.x
  • SWART, J. (1987). Sensitivity of a hyrax-lynx mathematical model to parameter uncertainty. South African Journal of Science (Vol. 83).
  • SWEARINGEN, W. D. (1996). AGRICULTURAL REFORM IN NORTH AFRICA: ECONOMIC NEcessity and environmental dilemmas. In D. J. Vandewalle (Ed.), North Africa : development and reform in a changing global economy (pp. 67-92). New York: St. Martin’s Press.
  • TEKETAY, D. (2001). Deforestation, wood famine, and environmental degradation in Ethiopia’s highland ecosystems: urgent need for action. Northeast African Studies (Vol. 8). https://doi.org/10.1353/nas.2005.0020
  • THORNES, J. B. (1985). The ecology of erosion. Geography, 70(3), p. 222-235.
  • Thornes, J. B. (1988). Erosional equilibria under grazing. In J. L. Bintliff, D. A. DAVIDSON, y E. G. Grant (Eds.), Conceptual issues in enviromental archaelology. Edimburgh: Edimburgh University Press.
  • UNCCD. (1994). United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in Africa. Document A/AC. 241/27, 12. 09. 1994 with Annexe. New York.
  • VAN COLLER, L. (1997). Automated techniques for the qualitative analysis of ecological models: continuous models. Conservation Ecology, 1(1), p. 5.
  • VAN DELDEN, H., SEPPELT, R., WHITE, R., y JAKEMAN, A. J. (2011). A methodology for the design and development of integrated models for policy support. Environmental Modelling y Software, 26(3), p. 266-279. https://doi.org/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.021
  • VENTANA SYSTEMS INC. (2006). VensimDSS software. Ventana Systems, Inc.
  • VETTER, S. (2005). Rangelands at equilibrium and non-equilibrium: recent developments in the debate. Journal of Arid Environments, 62(2), p. 321-341.
  • WANG, E., ZHANG, L., CRESSWELL, H., y HICKEL, K. (2006). Comparison of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Models for Simulation of Water Balance as affected by Seasonality , Vegetation Type and Spatial Land Use. International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, p 318.
  • WILCOX, B. P., y THUROW, T. L. (2006). Emerging issues in rangeland ecohydrology: vegetation change and the water cycle. Rangeland Ecology and Management, 59(2), p. 220-224.
  • WILLIAMs, C. A., y ALBERTSON, J. D. (2006). Dynamical effects of the statistical structure of annual rainfall on dryland vegetation. Global Change Biology, 12, 777-792. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01111.x
  • XU, D., LI, C., ZHUANG, D., y PAN, J. (2011). Assessment of the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification: A review. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21, p. 926-236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-0110890-1