SISMOTOOLSimulador de escenarios de peligrosidad y daños sísmicos

Resumen

The main objective of this work is part of the assistance and improvement of the Planning and Management of Seismic Emergencies, concepts whose temporary execution is carried out both before and after future damaging earthquakes. To fulfill this purpose, it is necessary to estimate the most probable damage scenarios, in the most effective way possible, for which the SISMOTOOL simulator has been designed. The simulator has been developed with the ArcGis software and therefore integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS), which makes it possible to prepare and develop the necessary data for the execution of the tool (pre-process) in a very efficient way, as well as the analysis of the data obtained (post-process). Likewise, it makes an estimate of the shakemaps and the damage and loss scenarios, through the calculation parameters involved, such as: earthquake characteristics and mechanism, energy propagation, amplification due to site effects of the soil and topographic, vulnerability of buildings, degree of damage and losses. In addition, the different options of calculation scales for the different expected results allow an increase in the performance, versatility and speed of the tool. The developed tool allows defining the origin parameters of the earthquake (magnitude, focal depth and associated failure mechanism) through a database managed by the user. In addition, it has another database of selectable and combinable attenuation laws according to the characteristics of the study area. The local effects of the site with respect to the type of soil are evaluated from the values of Vs30, which can be calculated from the topographic slope of the terrain obtained from the digital elevation model as a proxy method, and including local correlations with the Geological units present in the study area. The topographic amplification is evaluated through the digital model of terrain elevations. The vulnerable elements are incorporated from the cadastral database, once the basic input parameters have been processed through an automated analysis. Vulnerability and estimated losses can be calculated using empirical (EMS-98 scale and Vulnerability Index, Iv) or analytical (Capacity Spectrum) methods. In addition, a vulnerability modifier has been introduced considering the soil-structure resonance. The epistemic uncertainties in the input parameters that define the damage scenarios are included by means of a logical tree. To validate the use and results of SISMOTOOL, two representative seismic scenarios have been chosen in the southeast of Spain: the 1910 Adra earthquake, with moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 and macroseismic intensity VIII (EMS-98 scale), of which there are other research studies with theoretical results for comparison with those of SISMOTOOL; and the 1522 Almería earthquake with Mw 6.5 and macroseismic intensity IX-X, considered the most destructive in the history of Spain.