Las dinámicas del voto retrospectivo en España (1996-2017)

Abstract

After briefly introducing some of the explanatory concepts of voting from the point of view of its influence in the long, medium and short term, an analysis is made from the retrospective voting model approach. For the Spanish case, four series of the Centre for Sociological Research database are analysed, with the assessment of the management/performance of the Popular Party and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, as well as the series of voting intention to the two political parties. The analysis concludes the close relationship between the assessment of the management/performance of both political parties with their voting intention. The trends of decline observed in the trust in management/ performance of the two parties anticipated the bipartisan crisis scenario of 2015. Furthermore, considering the dynamics for the two parties, we observe the anomaly that, within the general pattern, represents the general elections of 2004 and 2011. As a strategy to control the ecological fallacy of the aggregates, an analysis has been carried out in five years (1997, 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017) studying the microdata to establish the relationship between management/performance valuation of the party and the voting intention at an individual level.