La potencia estadística prospectiva del voto retrospectivo en España (1996-2015)

  1. Alaminos, Antonio 1
  2. Alaminos, Paloma 1
  1. 1 Universitat d'Alacant
    info

    Universitat d'Alacant

    Alicante, España

    ROR https://ror.org/05t8bcz72

Revue:
OBETS: Revista de Ciencias Sociales

ISSN: 1989-1385

Année de publication: 2017

Volumen: 12

Número: 3

Pages: 249-278

Type: Article

DOI: 10.14198/OBETS2017.12.1.20 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

D'autres publications dans: OBETS: Revista de Ciencias Sociales

Résumé

This research evaluates the explanatory and predictive capacity that the evaluation of the political performance / management of the PP and the PSOE has on the electoral results of these political parties. The assessment of the two political parties is made in advance, between one and two months before the elections. The design includes both political parties, so the hypothesis tested is about the relationship between performance appraisal and governmental party management with their election results (Downs, 1957). That is, the effectiveness of the retrospective voting model to explain and anticipate electoral results in general elections in Spain. The calls for papers are the general elections in Spain in 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2011 and 2015. The evaluation data come from the Centre for Sociological Research and the election results of the Ministry of the Interior. After testing the hypotheses of association and dependence between the anticipated retrospective voting and the electoral results, it is concluded that the performance / management indicator of the PP and the PSOE has, in advance of one to two months, an association and significant explanatory power of electoral results. The predictive power, on the other hand, is low. Due to the sample size, the two political parties are included in the same model. Also, an analysis of the statistical power of several models is carried out, comparing different specifications.

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Information sur le financement

La investigación fue efectuada durante una estancia de investigación en 2017 del profesor Antonio Alaminos en el GESIS - Leibniz-Institute for the Social Sciences, financiada con la ayuda PRX16/00176, del programa de movilidad Salvador de Madariaga del Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte.

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